Tropical Storm Richard gained strength as it spun through the Caribbean, sparking alerts in Mexico, Honduras and Belize for a possible strike early next week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Richard’s maximum winds increased to 45 miles (72 kilometers) per hour from 40 mph earlier today, according to a hurricane advisory issued just before 5 p.m. East Coast time. The storm is about 130 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua, near the Honduran border, and is moving west at about 5 mph.
“It does appear as though the environment is becoming more conducive to strengthening,” the center said in a forecast analysis. “Most of the intensity models respond to this by intensifying Richard into a hurricane.”
There is a slight chance that Richard will become a concern for Mexican oil and gas rigs and almost no chance it will threaten U.S. platforms, said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for Weather 2000 Inc. in New York.
The current hurricane center track shows Richard reaching hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 mph this weekend before making landfall in Belize. The system will then weaken to a tropical storm over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Oct. 25, according to hurricane center maps.
From there, Richard is expected to become a tropical depression, the weakest form of tropical cyclone, and start to fade away over the Gulf of Mexico as it crosses the Bay of Campeche.
“Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico are likely to be too hostile for much re-intensification of Richard,” the hurricane center said.
Track Shifting
Schlacter said the official track is drifting farther south than originally forecast with every update and the storm’s intensity is lagging behind initial estimates. The drift means it could follow a path similar to the one taken by Tropical Storm Matthew, which broke up over Belize, Guatemala and Mexico.
Another scenario is that the storm will be swept off to the northeast, toward western Cuba and Florida, he said.
Even if Richard manages to enter the Gulf of Mexico, it won’t survive north of a line stretching from the southern tip of Florida to southernmost Texas, he said. At this time of year violent wind shear above that mark will tear any system apart, he said, making it “Death Valley” for storms.
“This isn’t August, this isn’t calm high pressure with lovely doldrums across the Gulf of Mexico, this is mid-autumn with vigorous weather systems,” he said. “It becomes a very inhospitable environment for a storm to survive in.”
Season Records
Richard is the 17th named storm of the year, making 2010 the sixth-most-active Atlantic hurricane season on records going back to 1851, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the hurricane center in Miami.
The most active season on record was 2005, which had 28 storms with winds of at least 39 mph.
As Richard grew, Honduras issued a hurricane watch, meaning winds of at least 74 mph are possible within two days, from its border with Nicaragua to Limon and the Bay Islands, according to the center. A tropical storm warning covers the same area, meaning winds of at least 39 mph should be expected within 36 hours.
Mexico issued a hurricane watch for its eastern coast from Gruesa to Chetumal.
Alerts Posted
A tropical storm watch is in effect in Honduras from Limon to the Guatemala border and for the entire coast of Belize, the center said.
Honduran authorities began preparing shelters and warned fishermen against setting sail amid the possibility of heavy rain, according to Copeco, Honduras’s emergency response agency. Jamaica’s meteorological service posted a flash flood warning on its website and said residents of low-lying areas should prepare for evacuation.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega declared an alert along the Caribbean coast and prepared to deploy 1,500 troops and food rations.
Central America has endured one of the worst rainy seasons in decades, with at least 300 deaths across the region in landslides and floods since May.
The rain also triggered an outbreak in Nicaragua of leptospirosis, an infectious disease that strikes the liver and kidneys, Ortega said, and caused a rat population boom that led to 16 deaths in Nicaragua and four in Honduras.
Elsewhere, the hurricane center is tracking two systems that may develop into storms. One, about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, has a 10 percent chance of becoming a cyclone in the next two days, according to the center.
The other, 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, has about a 30 percent chance of becoming a storm.
Feltgen said this system “has a very narrow window of opportunity” to become a tropical cyclone. It will move in a few days into an area where strong wind shear will tear at its structure, decreasing its chances of growth.
